Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at 淡水 貓腳印 AMB 店家冠軍賽
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.1% | -5.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 58.8% | +5.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.4% | -10.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |